From voter to candidate: how a second election sparks political ambition
When do people really start engaging in politics? For most people it is when they cast their first vote. Some individuals get the chance to vote right when they turn 18 while other have to wait until they are almost 22. Does it matter? Yes! New research using detailed data on Swedish politicians suggests that early voting make it more likely that young people run for office in the following election.
Using a clever statistical approach, Mattias Folkestad (Institute for International Economic Studies, IIES) and Chloé Nibourel (Swedish Institute for Social Research, SOFI) at Stockholm University looked at how a person’s first experience with an election influences their later political involvement. Thanks to Sweden’s detailed records and fixed election calendar, they could compare people who had just become eligible to vote and run for office, with those who had already done so once before.
The key tool they used is called a Difference-in-Discontinuity design. The idea is simple: because people born just before or after a cutoff date (say, turning 18 right before an election versus just missing it) are otherwise very similar, comparing them reveals the true impact of election timing — without the usual noise from other life factors.
So what did they find?
At first, the findings are unsurprising: voting — the most basic layer of political engagement — remains high, with turnout hovering around 82% for both first-time and second-time voters. But the real insight of this study comes when the focus shifts to more demanding forms of participation, like running for office or actually getting elected. That’s where a striking pattern begins to take shape.
Compared to first-time voters, second-timers were 10–14% more likely to run for office and a whopping 60–70% more likely to get elected. That's a major jump. In short, the second election seems to be when politically ambitious individuals truly get noticed (and chosen) by political parties.
Why might this be? The paper suggests an important mechanism: party screening.
"Political parties play gatekeepers in shaping who gets to run and who gets supported. The first election might be when young people signal interest, but it’s the second time around that parties start paying attention — and start investing", says Mattias Folkestad.
The research also dives into a hot policy topic: what happens if we lower the voting age to 16? If younger teens could vote and run for office, would it change who ends up in politics? The findings suggest it might, but only at the margins. And with that shift could come new concerns, especially around competence and social diversity.
In a time when democracies worldwide are grappling with political disengagement — especially among the young — this study highlights something crucial: it’s not just about getting people to the ballot box once. It’s about creating pathways for them to keep coming back, and eventually stepping up.
The paper "Starting young: How age limits shape political participation" has been accepted at the European Journal of Political Economy.
Last updated: April 30, 2025
Source: Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES)